On China's readiness for PO

I've been thinking about China lately. It seems to me that outside of countries that are currently net exporters of oil, China might be in the best position - even more so than the European countries. Perhaps from a very Machiavellian perspective, but even so.

First of all, consider its central government:
- China doesn't have the short-term thinking issues that most if not all democracies face. That is, U.S. politicians don't care about the long-term since that will not keep them in office. In China however, the central government keeps the long term/big picture in mind when making decisions. This is because they are not pressured by petty, short-term concerns of its constituents.

- China's government is doing a lot of things right now that makes you think they realize what's happening wrt PO and maybe even global warming. For example, they recently said that any new buildings that don't comply with very green standards "will be severely punished."


Now add to that the huge population:
- Even after a major die off, they'll still have more people than any other country. Quite a good "natural" resource to rely on for long-term stability.

- The central government will probably surmise (accurately) that sending a bunch of soldiers off to die in an effort to get more oil will end up saving net lives / population for China. Compound that with a certain set of values that the Chinese possess which go something like, "Anything you do for the family's well-being is a good thing, even if you have to commit evil acts to do so." As a result, while most oil-rich countries will be holding back trying to build up their protection and oil-poor countries will focus on diplomatic efforts to acquire oil, China will be most aggressive in its military efforts to acquire (and then protect) sources of oil.

Then it makes me think about the U.S., esp. its painfully short-term thinking, and its fantastic ability to fool itself in believing it's doing good when it's really being selfish and evil... Gosh - I didn't fully realize it until this moment, but I guess the only possible result is war between the U.S. and China. That's some scary shit.

Peak oil man - No need to read anything to enjoy this one!

Here's a fun little diddy of a video - I recommend it for all of you who don't buy PO and are unwilling to invest any time to understand if it's true.

Reflections on my first PO meeting (just now posting)

sorry - forgot to post this a couple months ago when I went to my first Peak Oil meeting...

Interesting meeting, a few random reflections:
- First of all, if you're reading this, I recommend finding a PO group or get one together. A good experience, I look forward to another one.
- In general, not your typical group of activists. An exception here or there, but these folks don't seem like most activists I've ever met. Very promising! Nothing wrong with activists, in fact I'm glad they exist, but I seem to feel better when they're not around.
- Upon entering this warehouse/office space, I see two bottles of wine underneath a big, not-fancy-but-kind-of-kitsch chandelier. Love it.
- Not super organized, in fact there's no explicit leadership. A good sign on the one hand, but could get annoying for those folks who like structure. I also believe that it'll make them ultimately less productive. Time will tell.
- These folks were involved in the April '06 SF PO resolution! How cool.

Also, like all PO groups, it's new and has all the issues that new organizations will have. It's been around a year or so, and it's definitely evolving. There are many examples of this, but the big one is that are still defining what they want to be and what they'd like to do.

To illustrate, there was a brief but passionate discussion regarding whether or not the group should focus on efforts to mitigate the effects of PO vs. prepare & accept it. On the one side, "We can't just lay down and die off - I feel we can do something to prevent a complete collapse." On the other, "Collapse is inevitable, we should just prepare ourselves mentally (and otherwise?) and accept it as it comes."

To me, the question still comes down to, "How should we prepare?" Should it be trying to make our communities and the world a better place? Or should we hunker down and literally prepare for the very worst kind of collapse?

I still say everyone who is "enlightened" should prepare for both.

Peak oil new years resolutions

Here's an article that might give you some ideas for NY resolutions.

Here are some of my personal ones (as it relates to PO):
- Start attending some PO meetings. There are a couple groups here in SF, hopefully one will work out.
- Read (??) number of PO books. I read articles frequently, but I haven't read much beyond this.
- Continue to update the ol' blog at least once per week. Please call me on it if I start to falter!
- Further my family's PO preparation. 2006 was OK, but we need to step it up.

Buying oil - USO

You may have noticed that oil is now below $56/barrel. You may also recall that I advised to buy USO back when it was in the $52-$54 range. Now that it's fallen to below $48, I'll advise to sell and get out of oil completely.

Just kidding!

Despite the warm winter, higher supplies, lack of hurricanes, etc. that has temporarily brought down the price of oil, nothing has fundamenally changed. I think now might be the best time to buy oil (and oil stocks) that we'll have moving forward. Please consider tightening your belt and investing your extra pennies into oil.

oh BTW I believe it's been acknowledged that production for 2006 is below the 2005 level, although I couldn't find "official" confirmation of this.