gas prices... ugh

Sorry it's taken me a bit to post. Sure I've been busy, but truthfully, I simply didn't have anything that I thought was worth sharing. I've been rather bummed recently, reading these fools remarking how great it is that oil prices are down. Or that gas prices are down. Next I'll be reading about how large SUV's are making a comeback.

You know, you can always spot a complete fool as they're making small talk, saying how terrible it is to have gas prices that are so high. And it doesn't do any good to tell them they're a fool - trust me on this one, I've tried (j/k).

The real bad thing is that oil prices have fallen just before an election cycle, keeping evil fools (or perhaps foolish evil) in office. Kuntsler has tossed out a consipiracy idea, that the army piled up on oil and oil futures, driving the prices up, and has since stopped (a few months before elections) which will bring prices down.

I don't generally buy conspiracy theories (as per Goethe, "Why blame conspiracy when stupidity explains so much?"), but I must admit I do like to entertain them a little. I definitely think there's something rather mysterious about oil falling, even considering the much-hyped Jack2. Are traders really that stupid? I can't figure it out.

Regardless, buy oil now, you may not see a better chance - ever. And if you're buying derivatives, make sure the strike date is after November.

Time to buy oil?

Consider a few things about recent oil prices:

- Oil is as low as it has been in a while.

- We still have two and a half months left in the hurricane season. As we all know, if a big hurricane hits the gulf, oil prices will go up - guarranteed.

- When you look at the naysayers of peak oil, they're all ecstatic, confident that the downward trend in oil prices will continue. I saw one fool who says $45/barrel is right around the corner. People who deny peak oil are likely the same people whose myopic perspective got us into this mess - and will likely continue to drive down oil prices.

- Everyone is big on Devon/Chevron's "Jack2" find (see prior blog post). If you investigate, you'll agree this is garbage - no way will they get as much as they say they will, and even if they do it'll still drive prices up due to the massive costs of extracting and transporting the oil (this is due to it's incredible depth, and the fact that it's a bunch of small wells, it's distance from shore, etc.)

- There's not one piece of news that can refute any of the fundamentals about peak oil. This is true even if Jack 2 is as big as the upper end of the (likely very aggressive) estimate it would have 15 billion barrels. That makes it comparable to Prudhoe Bay - a tiny fraction of the remaining reserves in the entire world. Less than 2% for sure.

All tolled, there is nothing that justifies the price of oil dropping 15-20%. "Why would this happen," you might ask? It's because traders simply aren't as smart as we think they are. In addition, traders aren't the only ones involved here in moving the market - there are also major investors, who definitely aren't the brightest lights on the Christmas tree.

I say if you've been holding out on investing in oil, now would be a great time to jump in head first. See my prior posts about different ways to do so.

why not count on the government to prepare?

Oh this just ticks me off:

http://www.energybulletin.net/20140.html

In short - Chevron & Devon are exaggerating about the gigantic off-shore discovery they've been hawking. It is simply a ploy to get the Senate to sign off on off-shore oil drilling so the oil companies can make more short-term profits, further depleting our dwindling resources.

This is why you can't trust the federal government to look after your best interests.

Response to "the mother of all peak oil preparedness essays"

That article (by Nowak) appears to have caused a stir - Rob Hopkins wrote a response to it, saying survivalism isn't the right approach:

http://www.energybulletin.net/20051.html

He makes some points you might consider:
- By promoting survivalism, it hurts the ability for communities to improve, become energy independent, etc.
- Preparing as Nowak suggest is not practical - or even possible - for all but the most affluent.
- There will be no place to hide if society collapses - so preparation is all about preventing the collapse, not trying to survive by yourself.

One other subtle point is, "If everyone knows you're preparing (as a survivalist would prepare), if there is a collapse, everyone will beat a path to your door - probably to your detriment." That is a pretty good point actually, something I've thought about in some of my more paranoid moments.

I say, why not take both paths? That is, why not prepare as a survivalist would, as well as in a manner that would promote your community?