Sequence of events

Another thing folks ask me about is, "When will it end?" or "When will the market crash happens?" Well, I don't know the whens about all these things, but I would take a guess about the general sequence.

First, the easy ones:
1. (Continued) rise in oil and commodity prices, with increasing price volatility.
2. (Continued) fall in the value of the dollar / increase in inflation. This is true both from a relative sense (ie. vs. other currencies), and an absolute one (ie. price changes regardless of other currencies)
3. (Continued) rise in U.S. national debt, including government debt
4. (Continued) U.S. housing collapse

Next, a little more of a stretch:
5. A significant rise in alternative vehicles, especially electric vehicles, with major advances in battery technology and affordability
6. A significant rise in renewable electricity
7. Current countries who are oil exporters significantly reduce exports
8. Current oil-producing countries reduce their oil extraction to extend the life of their wells.
9. Mexico and its currency plummet alongside Cantarell's production levels (ie. short the mexican peso & the mexican economy)
10. The oil market becomes even more of a bidding war
11. All transportation costs rise an order of magnitude from current levels.
12. China lets the yuan fully float and stops supporting/buying U.S. dollars

A little later down the road:
- Current oil exporters stop exporting
- Temporary gasoline (and propane, and kerosene, etc) shortages in the US, eventually turning more and more frequent
- Major job losses in the U.S. and world economy - massive unemployment
- Lapses in public services, including firefighters, police officers, hospitals, garbage, etc.
- A lot of suburbs and/or exburbs turning to slums
- Electric vehicles outnumbering gasoline vehicles
- Noticeable global population decreases, esp. in countries where there are current food shortages
- Increase in interest in supporting domestic railway system (although ??? re: funding)

(hopefully) way down the road:
- U.S. and China directly conflict, air & land war
- Massive poverty & significant starvation within the U.S.
- Virtual halt of international travel (let's call it a 95%+ decrease from current levels)
- Massive global population reduction from current levels
- Significant decrease in obesity and related deaths in the U.S.

have a nice day

TK