Preparing for the end of Cheap Energy

We all know it's coming, and there is likely no chance to stop it. Write your congressman and all that, but this blog is about SURVIVING through and THRIVING throughout the end of cheap energy. Let's toss in global warming, economic upheaval, and various other major calamities facing civilization.

Saturday, April 05, 2008

fun times

sorry forgot to post this - Recent transactions:

03/17/2008 Buy To Open 1 CLZ15 Crude Oil DEC 2015 100.30
03/17/2008 Buy To Open 1 NGZ11 Natural Gas DEC 2011 9.410
03/20/2008 Sell To Close 1 NGZ11 Natural Gas DEC 2011 8.760


Notice that I bought a contract, and turned around and sold it 3 days later for a hefty loss (about $6500). But I'm getting ahead of myself - here's the real story:

So I've been investing in this new thing called futures (see previous post) - and, holy shit - I'm making money hand over fist. Made like $65k or something crazy. right away too, within weeks.

Then, I decide to press my luck (see transactions above). Then everything comes crashing down, and all of the sudden I've lost all of my winnings and I'm nearing a margin call (ie. I have to put up more $$ or they'll force me to close out a position or two). So I sell one - the one I just bought a few days ago.

Turns out the past few weeks has been a roller coaster by any measure. I was reading about all the unprecedented rise and then more about his unprecedented fall in oil and natural gas and what-not. panic buying and selling is what they called it.

Needless to say, last week was quite a welcome into the futures trading market. It was fun going up, not so fun going down. Thankfully I didn't lose my shirt.

I know at this point that I'm too heavily leveraged, but I can't seem to get myself to close out some positions to reduce my risk. Here is what the current holdings are:

Description Qty Cost Basis Price
CRUDE OIL DEC 2015 3 99.85 97.74
CRUDE OIL DEC 2016 2 92.12 98.2
EURO FX JUN 2009 1 1.5275 1.5259
NATURAL GAS JUN 2013 1 7.889 8.596
NATURAL GAS DEC 2013 2 8.935 8.941
S&P 500 INDEX SEP 2009 -1 1325.2 1354.4

what do you say - roll the dice and keep these holdings? Or play it safe and cash out a bunch of these?

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