Test your knowledge!

Here's a fun test you should take, regardless of your level of knowledge (including, "I don't know why he keeps typing PO in his blog")

Goin' to the movies - San Francisco Peak Oil meeting

Hey the group here in San Francisco I meet with monthly is going to the movies this Tuesday - see invite below. If you're not really familiar and don't have time to learn, then go see "Crude Impact."



On this coming Tuesday evening, during our normal meeting time, the SFPC will take a field trip to see the 7:00pm screening of "Crude Impact" at the Roxie Theater in San Francisco.

"Crude Impact" touches on almost all the issues surrounding the peak oil problem, including overpopulation, environmental crimes, and the need for lifestyle change. It features good interviews with Thom Hartman and Richard Heinberg. Here's a review from Dennis Brumm.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/sfbayoil/message/1423

Here's a description of "Crude Impact" from the Roxie:
http://www.roxie.com/events/details.cfm?eventID=1A9D8A7D-F1F6-5CD4-17406996C7B1E61B

The film's website is:
http://www.crudeimpact.com/page.asp?content_id=9585

When: Tuesday 3/27/2007 at 7:00pm
Transportation is easy: The Roxie is located at 3117 16th Street, near Valencia Street. The MUNI 22 bus line stops in front. The 16th Street BART station is only a short walk away. Parking is difficult in this neighborhood--try the blocks near the Mission Dolores high school and Dolores Park, near Dolores and 18th streets.

If folks want, we can flier in front of the theater beforehand and afterward. Although, the crowd on Tuesday night is likely to be kinda light.

Bring a friend to see the film! This is good material for that broad-minded friend you've introduced to peak oil and is now ready to dive a bit deeper.

After the film we'll stumble into a nearby restaurant or watering hole for animated conversation and unruly behavior.

--Michael P.

Ghawar down 8% - is this the beginning?

For some foolish reason, I assumed that all 10 or 12 thousand of you readers out there knew this, but Ghawar (the super giant of super giant oil fields, 60% of Saudi Arabia's total output, 4x as large as the next largest super giant, 6% of all oil in the world, etc.) is clearly past peak (ie. on a decline). They're down about 8% from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2006.

Why do you care? There's a real chance this might be the beginning of the end. Saudi Arabia has long been the "swing" oil producer. They could up production (ie. extraction), cut it, etc. whenever they wanted to impact the price of oil. They lead OPEC. Ever since the early 70's, they have take the place of the U.S. in terms of oil producers. They are the man.

But with Ghawar declining, things could turn chaotic. The changing of the guard back in the early 70's sure as hell did - look at the gas shortages and what-not. And even if that doesn't do it, market forces surely will. I believe this means that every super giant is in decline (the only one I'm uncertain about is Durgan in Kuwait).

And for Ghawar, just as we've seen with other past peak super giants, the declines will likely be severe and rapid. There won't be a nice and easy plateau like CERA and others will have you believe.

Of course Saudi Arabia keeps all this a "state secret," so there's no admission of what's happening. They could just as easily say, "We're cutting production intentionally." But why would it be so gradual? Why would it mirror the pattern of other past peak giants? Why would there be a blip up in production with the Harradh III project - in fact, why would they hurry so much to get it online? Why would this coincide with other information like massive water cuts being reported over the past year or more?

Easy answer: Ghawar is really in decline, and that's no line (sorry about that one, had to do it)

If you've been waiting to prepare, to investigate, to whatever - I suggest you do it right now.

first peak oil meeting redux

sorry - I forgot to post this back in January.

Since then, I've been to a couple other meetings, and plan on attending once per month. I found a group that I like, and am looking forward to making a contribution over time. I'll keep you apprised over the year as things get a'rollin...