Preparing for the end of Cheap Energy

We all know it's coming, and there is likely no chance to stop it. Write your congressman and all that, but this blog is about SURVIVING through and THRIVING throughout the end of cheap energy. Let's toss in global warming, economic upheaval, and various other major calamities facing civilization.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

Update

Well, I totally bailed on this blog. I suk. I think you'll understand why after learning what has transpired since mid-2008 (in case you haven't already guessed):
- I didn't sell, and oil, natural gas, etc. all collapsed. I got crushed in the process, massive losses, wiping out most of our savings.
- I was particularly bummed when I had a margin call - like my 10th - and I decided to sell my S&P short instead of one or two oil or natural gas longs. I figured, "Eh, I'll get back into it in a couple months." Then a couple weeks later, before I went short again, the bottom fell out of the market. Would have made a killing (although still probably not enough to break even).

Where am I now?
- I still hold one long, a June 2013 natural gas future. Lost a bundle on it, but I figure NG is as low as it can go.
- For oil, I switched to options. Paying a massive time premium, and I can't trade way out in the future, but at least I won't get demolished.
- Everything else is gone, like dust in the wind.

Looking back, what should i have done differently?
- Obviously, I should have sold when things were high, either while I thought they were still going up, or after they obviously were crashing. But how would I have known? Here are some of my thoughts:
1. I needed an independent advisor's thoughts. I think anyone who understood futures well would have told me to get the hell out, and restructure my portfolio. I was looking for someone to advise me, but work just happened to be crushingly busy at that time, so I didn't go out of my way.
2. Before buying, have a target price for selling, both on the high side and the low side, or at least a plan what to do when it hits a certain point (e.g. do a calendar spread, or buy/write options).
3. Have a larger life/financial plan. This one is hard, but if had a firm vision for what this was, I may have sold in time when it looked like we were getting close to a financial milestone (e.g. enough to put 25% down on a house, although that's not one I would do obviously).
4. Watch falling knives. I tried to catch a falling knife when I bought a gasoline long as it was collapasing, very stupid. I also held my oil and natural gas as it was collapsing. I should have just let go of that knife and let it drop to the ground.

Others?