Preparing for the end of Cheap Energy

We all know it's coming, and there is likely no chance to stop it. Write your congressman and all that, but this blog is about SURVIVING through and THRIVING throughout the end of cheap energy. Let's toss in global warming, economic upheaval, and various other major calamities facing civilization.

Friday, August 01, 2008

update on my trading

down to monthly updates - no es bueno, pero es mejor de nada, si?

What's going on in my little peanut brain:
- I pulled the trigger and bought another gasoline (RB) contract. Trying to grab the falling knife - We'll see how well I did in a few months. So far I'm down about $2k, which i'd say is a negligible amount. I'm thinking if I get up at least $10k and I see it drop let's say three straight days, I'll sell it - Although I'll possibly keep my other gasoline contract.
- Lost a shitload of money in the past 3 weeks. A shitload. A giant load of shit.
- Natural gas is looking tasty, as is gasoline. as is gold. I'd say oil too but I have a lot of that, already too leveraged (although it's all highly correlated, isn't it?). I'm thinking I may do 4-5 month call options, since I'll kick myself in the arse if the stuff goes up big-time in the next few weeks.

What does the portfolio look like? Here 'tis:
Description Qty
CRUDE OIL DEC 2015 2
CRUDE OIL DEC 2016 2
EURO FX JUN 2009 2
NATURAL GAS JUN 2013 1
NATURAL GAS DEC 2013 2
RBOB GASOLINE DEC 2008 1
RBOB GASOLINE DEC 2009 1
S&P 500 INDEX SEP 2009 -1

What's not here is the fact that I have a bunch of GLD. I just like it, it feels good - kinda like a warm hot cocoa on a cold day. I think I'm going to buy call options on it. Also that I bought some DBA (that agricultural commodity ETF that I've written about). I like that one, but am too afraid to trade agricultures (or any softs) myself. Just seems too risky, plus they're definitely tied to oil (aren't we all?)

Holy shit - I just realized I have only a couple months left til expiration on my gasoline contract! I better pay attention....